Nothing seems to indicate that the war in Syria will end soon. Even a possible pact between Al-Assad and the Syrian opposition will not mean the end of the war, since Daesh, which is engaged in a particular war against everyone (regime, opposition, Western regimes, Islamic governments...), will still have to be defeated.
The situation will remain highly unstable even if the war ends and Daesh is eradicated. Syria and Iraq have great difficulty in regaining control over their territory. Rebuilding their administrative structures will require a long process of reconciliation and an economic rescue to bring stability to the country.
Refugees
As long as there is no peace in Syria and the country is not rebuilt, hundreds of thousands of refugees will continue to arrive in Europe. Europe has a wide border bordering some of the poorest regions on the planet, dictatorships and countries at war. At the same time, the territory of the European Union enjoys levels of welfare and freedom that are the envy of millions of people in Africa and the Middle East. Given this reality, what is surprising is that European politicians are surprised by the arrival of millions of refugees from Syria (located a few hours by plane from any European capital) and that after five years of war in the Middle East they have not foreseen a migratory process.
But to understand the magnitude of the challenge facing Europe, it is necessary to take into account a fact of Eurostat (the European Statistical Office): Syrians account for only 31 % of asylum seekers in the European Union since 2014. The rest are refugees from Iran, Afghanistan, Pakistan..., or from African countries such as Eritrea, Somalia, Nigeria and many others. In total 1,500,000 asylum seekers. If we add to them all those who have entered without registering at the borders, we have more than two million people who have entered Europe fleeing war, persecution and misery in 2014 and 2015.
In 2015, more than one million migrants (mostly refugees) reached the Greek and Italian coasts by crossing the sea in precarious rubber dinghies, as indicated by Frontex (the European agency in charge of external border management). Of that million, more than 870,000 have used the eastern Mediterranean route. The majority are Syrians, Iraqis and Afghans. The distance between the Turkish coast and the Greek island of Lesbos is ten kilometers. This distance is short, but the fragile boats crowded with people (each boat carries between 40 and 60 migrants) are not always able to withstand the crossing and end up shipwrecked. We all remember the images of drowned refugees on the beaches of Turkey.
Migrants and refugees pay large sums of money to mafias in exchange for transportation, directions on how to apply for asylum and documentation. The average cost of a passage for a family in a rubber dinghy that may sink is €10,000. The Turkish-Greek and Turkish-Bulgarian land border is another access point to the European Union.
Schengen Area
The massive influx of refugees has overwhelmed national authorities. Some countries have decided to partially suspend the Schengen agreement (adopted in 1985 and which made it possible to create a European area without borders). This suspension has left hundreds of thousands of refugees stranded in the border areas of Macedonia, Croatia, Austria and Hungary, living in the open.
The lack of coordination between European states led to chaos. At first, European governments were inclined to help the refugees. German Chancellor Angela Merkel refused to limit the number of asylum seekers on German territory. The final destination of asylum seekers is mainly Germany. In September 2015, the European Union adopted an agreement allowing the reception of 120,000 refugees spread across different countries. However, that agreement still remains unfulfilled and refugees are still living in refugee camps in Greece, or in sports centers and reception centers in Germany, Austria, Denmark and other countries.
Agreement with Turkey
The pressure of a part of public opinion, which is fearful of the arrival of refugees, and the conviction that the exodus will not stop in the short term, has led the governments of the European Union to seek an agreement with Turkey to act as a "buffer state". Angela Merkel defended the negotiation with the argument that Europe could not act unilaterally. "If we fail to reach an agreement with Turkey, Greece will not be able to bear the burden for long."he said.
The agreement reached between the European Union and Turkey in March means that, from now on, refugees will have to apply for asylum in Europe from Turkish territory. Those who arrive on European soil without having done so will be returned to Turkish territory. This measure will not affect refugees who were already in Europe before the agreement. In exchange, Turkey has obtained a commitment from the European Union that its entry into the Union will be promoted and that the process for Turkish citizens to gain access to the Schengen area without the need for a visa will be accelerated. European countries will also give Turkey 6 billion euros in aid to help it deal with refugees.
The aim is to make the option of crossing the Mediterranean by dinghy less attractive and to encourage migrants to arrive in Europe with their status already regularized. The big question is whether this agreement respects European legislation on the right to asylum. The directive 2013/32/EU states that "a Member State may extradite an applicant to a third country [...] only if the competent authorities are satisfied that an extradition decision will not result in a direct or indirect refoulement in violation of that Member State's international and Union obligations." (Article 9, paragraph 3).
Article 33(1) of the Geneva Convention establishes that "no Contracting State shall expel or return a refugee in any manner whatsoever to the frontiers of territories where his life or freedom would be threatened on account of his race, religion, nationality, membership of a particular social group or political opinion"..
Reactions
Catholic social organizations in Spain (Caritas, CONFER, Social Sector of the Society of Jesus, Justice and Peace, Manos Unidas...), as well as those in other countries, have expressed "its dismay and its most absolute rejection". to the agreement between the European Union and Turkey. For these organizations, the agreement means "a serious setback for human rights".. In an official statement, the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), has not rejected the agreement, but has warned that when it is implemented, it will have to be implemented by the end of the year. "respecting international and European legislation". The President of the European Council, Donald Tusk, expressed himself along the same lines: "The most important thing, and it is something we will not compromise on, is the absolute necessity to respect both our European Law and International Law. It is indispensable, otherwise Europe can no longer be Europe.". In this regard, many voices have warned that the expulsion of refugees violates the founding spirit of the European Union.
In his homily during the Palm Sunday Mass in St. Peter's Square in Rome, Pope Francis referred to the situation of refugees. "I think now of so many people, so many immigrants, so many fugitives, so many refugees, those of whom many do not want to take responsibility for their fate."said the Holy Father, after affirming that Jesus suffered "indifference, because no one wanted to take responsibility for their destiny.".
Solution
The agreement with Turkey may alleviate some of the migratory pressure on the southeast of the European Union, but it will by no means solve the problem. As the Balkan route closes, other routes may open up in the coming months.
The solution lies in putting an end to the wars in neighboring states (especially in Syria), in stopping the action of jihadist groups such as Daesh or Al Qaeda, and in developing a plan for the development of neighboring countries. The European Union, undermined by the particular interests of its member states, does not seem to have the capacity to achieve these objectives. So far, the European reaction to the challenges of migration and jihadism has been slow, uncoordinated and ineffective. The challenge now is to guarantee the human rights of asylum seekers arriving on EU territory.
